Wednesday, 25 November 2009

Can we have Tory Boom and Bust back please?

It looks rather better than Brown Boom and Bust:

Explanation here.


  1. That Speccy article is terrifying.

  2. The graph could be misleading in that it is rebased at the 'beginning' of a recession and, for example, had it been rebased at a peak in about 1987, the situation would have looked just as awful.

    This aside, the economy is in a worse state. The really sad fact is that Thatcher/Joseph would be unable to pull off what they did in the 1980s today, simply because we no longer have the industrial base, the reserves nor the assets to be privatised which at the time encouraged individuals to save. Now most individuals are struggling to pay off their debts.

    Labour has squandered so much opportunity in my opinion by expanding the public sector, investing in facilities and adopting a generous benefits system, using up North Sea oil revenues, booming tax receipts, Treasury reserves, pension assets to name just some of the items Brown managed to get at as Chancellor. So much could have been avoided with a more prudent regime, but wait, there is more angst to be had under Labour.

    They are making two horrific mistakes:

    1) While they allowed financial services to a huge revenue generator, by looking to regulate it in amateur-like revengeful manner aimed directly at the level of the individuals, they jeopardise sound agency activities in the City of London that generate significant wealth. They should focus on the banks and the associated credit risk regulation, not kill the goose that did lay a golden egg. (We already have friends moving to Geneva.)

    2) They fail to realise that the standard of living in this country depends very much on our ability to buy imported goods, and by damaging the strength of the currency by clocking up extraordinary national debt, they are sentencing us to two decades of hard times. I don't disagree they should have thrown money at the problem initially, but they can now be accused of continuing to overreact in their own self interest but to the longterm detriment of all of us.

    I think recession under the Tories was better for everyone except the unskilled working classes and they have never recovered. Now we are all going to suffer, especially the older middle class as:

    i) They are not rich enough not to feel it.

    ii)They have amassed wealth which, when taxed, will not affect wealth creation.

    iii)If they are approaching retirement, they don't have the energy to start businesses.

    iv) Nor will they be chosen for one of the scarce jobs.

    The outlook is bad whichever way you look at it since UK plc has little industry that can be grown in a meaningful manner. I wonder if we do manage to get to the General Election without the IMF being called in: it would be sad to see that tradition disappear. Want to emigrate, BE and P?

  3. M, funny you should ask because although I don't want to emigrate and certainly not permanently I am beginning to wonder whether a few years abroad might be nice...

  4. Yes, I do want to emigrate - in principle. But there are no places that I am especially keen to emigrate to, and the remainder of the Patently clan would be hurt by the uprooting.

    Blue - with no ties here, plenty of potential, and more life ahead of you (d.v.), you should go. Now. No offence...