Is there an Alternative?

I haven't said much on the subject of the AV referendum, for one very simple reason; I'm really not sure what I think about it.

Of course, if I were a loyal member of the Conservative Party then my decision would be straightforward; vote "no" to AV because Dave says so.  However, there are very few things that I am loyal to when it comes to being told what to think, and I don't think any political parties are on that particular list.  So, as usual, I will insist on making my own mind up.  And therein lies the reason for my silence; I hadn't made my mind up until today.

To try and decide, I've looked at the last two election results for my constituency, Wycombe.  The 2010 polling was as follows:

Conservative	Steve Baker	23,423
Liberal Democrat	Steve Guy	13,863
Labour	Andrew Lomas	8,326
UKIP	John Wiseman	2,123
Independent	Mudassar Khokar	228
Independent	David Fitton	188

So under FPTP, Steve Baker won handsomely and is now apparently acquitting himself well as a new backbencher.  Under AV, the result would probably have been the same; we have no idea where the independent votes would have gone, but we can assume that the UKIPpers would have voted Conservative as their second preference.  That would have increased Steve Baker's vote to 25,546, over half the total cast and therefore an outright win.  We can't be certain - we might have had a UKIP win with lots putting Conservatives as their second preference, but given the complete vanishing act by the UKIP candidate for the whole campaign, I doubt it.  

What about 2005?  Then, the votes were a little different:

Conservative	Paul Goodman	20,331
Labour	Julia Wassell	13,280
Liberal Democrat	James Oates	8,780
UKIP	Robert Davis	1,735
Independent	David Fitton	301

Again, I have to ignore the Independent votes for the very persistent Mr Fitton, as I have no idea where they would go.  So UKIP would be the next to be eliminated, giving:

Conservative	Paul Goodman	22,066
Labour	Julia Wassell	13,280
Liberal Democrat	James Oates	8,780

Still no-one has an overall majority.  So the Lib Dem is eliminated.  I'm guessing most or all of those votes would go to Labour; let's be honest, most Lib Dems are quite socialist in outlook.  So that gives:

Conservative	Paul Goodman	22,066
Labour	Julia Wassell	22,060

Ooops.  The 301 Independent votes will swing it either way, therefore.  Given that Wycombe is an historically Conservative seat, and that a protest vote against that "establishment" is a fairly non-Conservative thing to do, I reckon there is a good chance that most of them would put Labour second, handing what FPTP declared to be a safe conservative seat to Labour, reversing a 7,051 majority and giving the seat to someone who was the first preference of 30% of the voters.  

And there is, I think, my objection to AV.  Its supporters claim that it produces a winner who is supported by a majority of the voters.  I disagree; I see this as pure spin.  I think it yields a winner who was not objected to by a majority of the voters.  Think about it: psychologically, you will give your first vote to someone who you want to win.  Your second vote will go to someone who you don't mind winning - the compromise candidate.  Yet, as shown above, it is the second preference votes that will decide the result in many cases.

This will have a simple and predictable effect on the election process.  We will get the inoffensive candidates.  The one that no-one minds if they get in.  The ones that are dull.  The ones with no firm opinion of their own, and no likelihood of expressing a definite view.  The ones that will toe the party line..

Meanwhile, the principal thing that I think is wrong with our political system (and it heads a long list) is that we have a  dreary bunch of machine politicians, corporatist Statists who think they are there to help their party win elections and gain the right to manage the UK.  This is reflected in the oft-repeated jibe that the parties are all indistinguishable - they are just bland centrist men in grey suits who will maintain the status quo rather than fix it.  I want independent thinkers in Parliament, MPs who understand that they are there to represent the interests of their constituents, hold the executive to account and limit its freedom to act, and to scrutinise draft legislation (people like Steve Baker, in fact).

What we need is a breath of fresh air.  We need it to be easier to create a new party, widen the range of candidates, challenge the established order of the left, the right, and the other lot.  We need a situation where a party who falls seriously out of favour (like Labour in 2010 or the Tories in 1997) don't just lose power, they die.  Any company that let down or lost the faith of its customers in the way politicians of all colours have in our history would be bankrupt, would itself be history.

AV won't do that.  It will reinforce the drift towards bland politics, the politics of protecting the established order.  And we can see that in the referendum campaign.  Dizzy has found that the Yes campaign is funded by corporate self-interest, and the No campaign has resorted to peddling frankly pathetic and fallacious non-sequitors.  It is politics as usual from both sides, in other words.  We can do better than this.  We deserve better than this.  

I want RON, not AV as such.  RON, in case you don't know, is "Re-Open Nominations", an alternative on the ballot which, if it "wins", results in the election being re-run with new candidates standing.  This could be combined with AV, or STV, or whatever - it would allow people to say "I don't like any of these", or "This candidate, else none of them".  My preference would be for AV/STV, plus RON, plus compulsory voting.  Send the message that you must vote, but if you don't like any of them then you can vote for none of them.

That would really set the cat amongst the pigeons, given our usual level of voter turnout.

So, the AV referendum is a missed opportunity, twisted by narrow political interests that only want it in order to preserve a system that suits them.  It will, I suspect, be the issue that stops me from voting Lib Dem for a very long time.